Estimating tourism losses due to COVID-19 Pandemic: The case of Puerto Princesa underground river, Philippines

Abstract

This study estimated the economic losses of Puerto Princesa Underground River (PPUR) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The PPUR in Puerto Princesa City, Palawan, Philippines is part of the Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park (PPSRNP) and is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The lost tourist arrivals caused declining PPUR revenues, affected the local economy, and posed a potential threat to PPSRNP’s environment. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) was used to estimate the revenue and tourist arrivals while the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) was used to estimate PPUR expenses. The results revealed that the PPUR lost Php 172,997,905.00 which was attributed to the foregone 281,441 international tourists and 335,687 domestic tourists from 2020-2021. The PPUR management could expect Php 2,230.56 as revenue per potential tourists, an increase in revenue of roughly Php 96.7 million, an increase in international tourist arrivals, and a decrease in domestic tourist arrivals from 2022-2024 had there been no pandemic. Thus, PPUR management should forge active collaboration with different stakeholders for sustainable operation in times of economic disaster.